Gold has stabilized after another rally amid concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and inflation risks in the US. At the same time, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warns that the price of gold could rise to nearly $5,000 per ounce if the independence of the Federal Reserve is undermined and investors move even a small portion of their assets from Treasuries into bullion.

This scenario, while extreme, highlights growing concerns about the long-term stability of the financial system in the context of rising government debt and political pressure on central banks. A surge in gold to $5,000 per ounce is not merely speculative forecasting, but rather a warning about the potential consequences of eroding trust in institutions that underpin currency and financial market stability. Undermining the Fed's independence would lead investors and traders to lose confidence in the central bank's ability to control inflation and sustain the dollar's purchasing power.

In such a situation, gold, which is traditionally viewed as a safe haven, would become an attractive alternative to Treasuries, which are usually considered among the world's safest assets.

"A scenario in which the Fed's independence is undermined will likely lead to rising inflation, falling stock and long-term bond prices, and a weakening of the dollar's status as a reserve currency," states the latest Goldman report.

The bank also outlined several possible outlooks for gold, including a base case scenario where gold grows to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. The so-called minimal risk scenario is priced at $4,500. The $5,000 mark would be breached if at least 1% of the private US Treasury market reallocates into gold.

This year, precious metals have become one of the most dynamically growing major commodities, rising by more than a third and reaching a record high earlier this week. The rally has been driven by accumulation by central banks and bets on imminent Fed rate cuts. Recently, additional support came after President Donald Trump took steps to increase control over the Fed, including attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook from office.

As for the current technical picture, buyers need to seize the nearest resistance at $3,562. This will open the way to $3,600, above which it will be quite difficult to break out. The furthest target is the $3,641 area. In the event of a decline, the bears will attempt to take control of $3,526. If they succeed, breaking this range will deal a severe blow to the bulls' positions and pull gold down towards a low of $3,490, with the prospect of reaching $3,444.