Bitcoin, like Ether, is coping with the pressure it is facing, but the risks of a larger decline remain quite high.

Below are three negative factors that are simultaneously weighing on Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market is entering September with a combination of unfavorable factors that overlap and create a much more concerning backdrop than any of them would individually. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to almost 60%, compared with 41.4% a week earlier and just 35% before Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole. This is a direct continuation of the same hawkish shift that already ended the nine-day streak of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs at the end of last week. A higher probability of a rate hike means a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields, and both factors traditionally weigh on speculative and non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, reducing the appeal of holding cryptocurrency relative to risk-free alternatives.

The geopolitical backdrop is worsening the situation in two ways at the same time. The United States has resumed strikes against Iran, while Trump hinted in a post on Truth Social that the oil hub on Kharg Island had once again become a target. For the cryptocurrency market, this combination is doubly negative: an escalation with Iran creates a classic risk-off scenario, forcing traders to reduce their positions in volatile assets.

And the third factor is technical. Bitcoin is stuck below the important $86,000 resistance zone, which remains out of reach ahead of the close of the August monthly candle. At the same time, as I noted above, the asset itself is showing a certain degree of resilience.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $79,800, with a target of rising toward $81,000. Around $81,000, I will exit the long position and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $79,200 if there is no market reaction to a break below this level, with a return toward $79,800 and $81,000.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $79,200, with a target of declining toward $78,000. Around $78,000, I will exit the short position and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $79,800 if there is no market reaction to a break above this level, with a return toward $79,200 and $78,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Ether when the entry point is reached around $2,512, with a target of rising toward $2,561. Around $2,561, I will exit the long position and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ether can be bought from the lower boundary at $2,494 if there is no market reaction to a break below this level, with a return toward $2,512 and $2,561.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Ether when the entry point is reached around $2,494, with a target of declining toward $2,447. Around $2,447, I will exit the short position and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ether can be sold from the upper boundary at $2,512 if there is no market reaction to a break above this level, with a return toward $2,494 and $2,447.