Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 148.08 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair plunged by 120 pips. Buying on the rebound from 146.84 allowed for an additional profit of around 60 pips from the market.

Employment in the US non-farm sector grew by only 22,000 in August, which led to a sharp drop in the dollar and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. This unexpectedly weak figure, which contrasts sharply with forecasts predicting an increase of around 75,000 jobs, caused a wave of concern in financial markets and triggered a broad exit of investors from dollar assets. The current situation puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. On one hand, weak employment data indicate the need to return to accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery. On the other hand, inflation demands a restrictive policy to prevent the economy from overheating. The Fed's further actions will depend on incoming economic data and on how persistent the current slowdown in growth proves to be.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 148.30 is reached (green line on the chart), targeting a rise towards 148.86 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 148.86, I intend to exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 147.98, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upwards. A rise towards the opposite levels of 148.30 and 148.86 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 147.98 level (red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 147.43 level, where I intend to exit the sells and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to move down from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.30 price, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market turn. A decline to the opposite levels of 147.98 and 147.43 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.