Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.46 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell towards the target level of 147.97.

The Japanese yen regained some ground against the dollar after the release of disappointing US Bureau of Labor Statistics figures on job openings and labor turnover. The published numbers were an unpleasant surprise for the markets and led to a reassessment of expectations regarding further monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The decrease in the number of job openings pointed to a reduction in demand for labor, signaling a possible slowdown in US economic growth. Simultaneously, increased labor turnover—a situation where employees change jobs more frequently—typically reflects uncertainty about labor market stability and a search for better opportunities.

It's important to note, however, that a variety of factors will determine the long-term dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. These include future Fed decisions regarding interest rates, economic indicators from both the US and Japan, and the overall global geopolitical situation.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 148.37 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to the 148.80 level (thicker green line on the chart). Near 148.80, I intend to exit the long position and open a sell position in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips back from this level). It's best to return to buying on pullbacks and significant corrections in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.11 price while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and result in a market reversal to the upside. One can then expect a rise to the opposing levels of 148.37 and 148.80.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking through the 148.11 level (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers would be at 147.64, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It's best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.37 price while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. In this case, a decline can be expected towards the opposing levels of 148.11 and 147.64.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.